Saturday 20 February 2010

Lib Dems and the potential for hung parliament - Patrick Wintour in the The Guardian

Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg

Nick Clegg, right, may be kingmaker in a Brown-Cameron battle. Photograph: Rex Features

For the first time in 15 years, the Liberal Democrats are facing the perils of being taken seriously as they handle the gathering speculation about what they would do, or allow to happen, in a hung parliament.

A balanced parliament was not a realistic prospect in 2001 or 2005. By contrast, in 1997 Paddy Ashdown made elaborate plans anticipating one, relying on lengthy advice from Lord McNally, now the Liberal Democrat leader in the Lords and a source of wisdom to the people around Nick Clegg.

Lord Rennard, the former party chief executive, has recalled that 39 out of 42 polls pointed to a hung parliament in 1992, and the issue was discussed in private, in a specially chosen hotel room, between Neil Kinnock's staff and the Liberal Democrat leadership. But John Major and his party unexpectedly defeated the recession and the pollsters to remain in power as a majority government.

In 1987, the joint SDP-Liberal alliance effectively scuppered its own campaign by making the goal of holding the balance of power the explicit objective of its campaign. "What if" politics can be the upending of a third party. As one Lib Dem election veteran admits: "I have been through elections and everyone spent the time talking about what could happen. The consequence was that nothing happened. We lost."

The party's freestanding message becomes obscured by the speculation over whether it is likely to form a partnership with left or right.

This time will they have the wisdom and skill to use the opportunity for the benefit of modernizing the system and for the good of the UK?

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