Posted by Patrick Dunleavy.
All recent projections are pointing to a hung Parliament – where the top party in the Commons does not have an overall majority (that is, 326 or more out of the 650 MPs). But this term covers two kinds of very different situations:
1. A shallow hung Parliament would occur if one party gets close to the 326 majority level but does not quite reach it. Bear in mind that for David Cameron, there are a cushion of Northern Ireland seats, with the Unionists of all persuasions likely to support him in office, and the Sinn Fein MPs certain not to show up at Westminster (and so not needing to be covered). These considerations suggest that the lower boundary for a Cameron government with a working ability to pass laws should be put at around 318 seats and not 326. From 317 down to 300 seats for the Conservatives, the Parliament would be shallowly hung – meaning that the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats together would not be able to bring it down on a motion of confidence. Cameron in these circumstances would very likely run a minority government, saying to the Liberal Democrats – “Support us or look unpatriotic, and risk another immediate election”. Given the concentration of executive power in ministers’ hands and the general uselessness of the Commons as any kind of effective legislature, a Conservative minority government is pretty certain to be able to last out until May 2011, when it would call a second general election.
2. A deeply hung Parliament occurs when both the Tories nor Labour get less than 300 seats, and so neither could hope to pass any legislation without seeking the active co-operation of the Liberal Democrats from the word go.
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