"The pound can rally even if we don't get a clear one-party majority on 6 May and the three main political parties are forced into negotiations over a coalition government."Broux's data also disputed the "widely popular" view that a Conservative win invariably results in a sterling rally. He pointed out that after both Tory election victories in the 1980s, the pound lost ground against the dollar in the month immediately after.
Broux did not underestimate the threat to Britain's AAA credit rating. With the ratings agencies "breathing down the government's neck" and the economic outlook still uncertain, he understood the currency markets' anxiety.
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